Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications

نویسندگان

  • Peter G. Jones
  • Philip K. Thornton
چکیده

0308-521X/$ see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. A http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.08.002 ⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +254 131 667 1960. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (P.G. Jo (P.K. Thornton). 1 Tel.: +44 1341 423561. We describe a generalised downscaling and data generation method that takes the outputs of a General Circulation Model and allows the stochastic generation of daily weather data that are to some extent characteristic of future climatologies. Such data can then be used to drive any agricultural model that requires daily (or otherwise aggregated) weather data. The method uses an amalgamation of unintelligent empirical downscaling, climate typing and weather generation. We outline a web-based software tool (http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM) to do this for a subset of the climate models and scenario runs carried out for the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We briefly assess the tool and comment on its use and limitations. 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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تاریخ انتشار 2012